Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Digging in & digging out

Like everyone else in these mountains I'm out in the snow with my shovel. Several world war I style snow trenches encircle the house as I make pathways for the dogs to do their business, and for me to get around and rescue the back porch from certain collapse. I stare at the roof and watch the snow slide imperceptibly over the edge, only to come thundering down in a sudden and surprising collapse. I imagine our civilization doing the same, and with everything going on right now - in the world - I'm certain we are at the melt point dangerously over the eaves and ready to fall suddenly. The global economic system has the burden of heavy debt and overcapacity. Gravity, or as it were, reality, will bring it all down like so much burdensome iniquity. I ponder these musings while I work up a sweat shoveling four feet of snow pack from the back porch, and at the same time nervously staring up at the roof waiting for the unfallen snow to crush me. My survival plan was to shift inward to the exterior walls and under the eaves if I heard the looming calamity. My guardian angel was on duty and after several hours my only misery was a sore shovel arm and a set of sweat soaked clothing. Southern boys can survive!


Came inside to cyber talk with www.oilage.com forum members and monitor unfolding global events that 99% of my fellow Americans choose to ignore while taking their Disney trips and spending nights with American Idol. Speaking of Disney, they had a great showing on Wall st sending Dow industrials even higher, or was it McDonald's profits since the ever poorer debt laden citizen chooses their frankafood over fresh produce. People seem to be using their credit cards again, I figure out of desperation and the need to keep their dystopic narcissistic worlds intact. And of course the media chose to largely ignore reports that jobs have not kept up with population growth, and housing is showing cardinal signs of further deflation - at least 20%. Bankruptcy is also up...again. I'm amazed that the media pundits choose to follow script with so few willing to break the recovery meme. What in the world are those producers saying in those ear mics? I did come across this online that compiles government action over the last few years - We can see now how this environment has been wonderful for equities (Stocks):
-The Chinese government stimulates to the effect of 13% of GDP in late 2008 and this spills over globally.
-The T.A.R.P. money is distributed around the financial and industrial sector in the U.S.A.
-Bank shares are bought by the Treasury; ditto for shares of auto companies.
-Accounting rules are changed so the banks can start showing a profit.
-The Fed radically steepens the yield curve by cutting rates to zero and then promotes financial sector profitability by purchasing mortgages en masse. The mantra is that the Fed and Treasury saved us from a Depression.
-The Fed moves to expand its balance sheet even more in November but unofficially announces the extension in late August.
-The U.S. government embarks on a spending spree in early 2009 and runs up a record debt bill and then extends the stimulus in late 2010.
So the corporate sector has been receiving tremendous support from the government.

Bond market yields inched up higher today as the fed found little in the way of foreign bank investment. QE2 continues on while the world struggles to pay for food. Egyptians are still embattled with their government not realizing that no one from a dictator to Ghandi can save them and keep them fed.

Droughts and run away inflation in China http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-02-china-drought-global-impact.html, cat 5 hurricanes, fires, and profound biblical flooding in Australia http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/02/idUS380823123420110202, crop failures in Russia, drought in Brazil http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/brazil/101102/amazon-drought-climate-change, massive flooding in South Africa, and winter storms sweeping relentlessly through the southern US and dumping record amounts of snow, and all of which marked by startling events taking place in the Artic. The climate is destabilizing. Between inflation and global crop failures a large portion of humanity is destined to starve. I'm sure we're set to see even worse.

"How is it you cannot see the signs?"

I continue to do what I can from my Vermont outpost, a old antique house built up in the hills by a man whom I'm sure saw 19th century difficulties. I add to my food stockpile weekly, and I found a nice second hand food store down in Bethel, VT that provides staples at a marked discount. I snap up the mac and cheese at 35c a box and flax cereal for 2 bucks while shopping with people barely able to keep the heat on in their houses. Money is profoundly tight in my household as it is with many of my neighbors. Most are too proud to admit their difficulties. I see a desperate and depressive look on my operations manager at work. Our ambulance service, the one I work at, is locally supported and budget revenue's are dropping everywhere. She hasn't said we're in trouble, but I wonder when I see few calls, whether hosp to hosp transports, or emergency's coming in. There is continued equipment breakdowns at the station, from 200,000 dollar trucks with air suspension failures to people running over gas lines with snow blowers, the price of maintenance is high. I think too that the state's snow clearing budget is nearing it's max and we have still a ways to go before escaping Winter's embrace. More snow tonight and later this week. Inch after inch the plows weather on draining what's left in the coffers. What oh what will we do when the snow becomes too expensive to move and 21st century lives become entombed up here in these cold mountains? I question my reserves and choice of this isolated place so far from friend or family. The toil of this has taken a bite in the harmony of my marriage.

My providence is tested and my God bats last.

4 comments:

  1. Good, brave post, Mr. Doom. This is the hard part of winter, when the accumulations just keep growing, and spring is a laughable dream. Hang in there.

    Your town: do you have a sense how this fits in recent history, i.e. is that kind of budget stress typical or unusual?

    PS: nice video. Blogging it this morning.

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  2. You arse-wipe, you banned me because I don't believe in Planet X. What a d'ick!

    vision-master

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  3. Hi Megadoom! I started looking for and valuing your awesome analysis a long time ago at the old LATOC forum, then more recently found you at the OilAge forum, where people are now missing your posts and asking about you. Your posts help me maintain sanity with sleeping zombies like ReserveGrowthRules loose on the planet. The best to you! Barry Curtis

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  4. Come on Vision-Master, you got banned because anytime a Planet X halfwit comes along it makes the entire site look bad. Or in this case, even worse than before. Get over it, you are just cheesed because you can't find anyone to foist your stupid ideas off on to make you feel like you aren't the only one dumb enough to fall for them.

    ReplyDelete